Chesterfield 3–3 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Accrington ST

J. Berry-McNally 62'

L. Bonis 47'

T. Naylor 45'

C. Caton 75'

T. Walton 26', 17'

11/8/2025

League Two · Round 15SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield50%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Chesterfield

1.69

Accrington ST

1.14

Chesterfield creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.69

creates per match

0.90

1.38

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Accrington ST

0.90

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Accrington ST

1.69

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

74%

Chesterfield or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

50%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

27%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

82%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

50%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

68%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

32%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

66%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chesterfield scores more

50%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

26%

Chesterfield at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Walton

Accrington ST · F

8.9

Match Events

17'

23'

24'

26'

33'

37'

45'

T. Naylor↳ J. Berry-McNally

46'

J. Donacien← V. Daley-Campbell

47'

L. Bonis↳ D. Markanday

55'

Kyle McFadzean

61'

R. Darcy← L. Mandeville

61'

J. Bauress← L. Coyle

62'

J. Berry-McNally

69'

A. Henderson← I. Sinclair

69'

C. Caton← S. Whalley

70'

D. Duffy← J. Berry-McNally

75'

C. Caton

84'

S. Conneely← C. Grant

84'

J. Woods← T. Walton

86'

A. Lewis← D. Markanday

86'

88'

90+3'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldAccrington

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots16

3.02Expected Goals (xG)1.85

11Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target8

5Off Target3

7Blocked5

13Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

425Total Passes293

318Accurate Passes198

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2