Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
15:00
Tranmere
Tranmere
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28Whaddon Road
Big match
38%
Tranmere
model favours
35%27%38%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cheltenham35%
×Draw27%
Tranmere38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.26
Tranmere
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Tranmere
1.18

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.47
Tranmere
1.39

finishing

Cheltenham+0.14scores more
Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
62%
Cheltenham or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
15%
Tranmere wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
36%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
13%
Tranmere 1+ goals
73%
Tranmere 2+ goals
38%
Tranmere 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Cheltenham defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more
35%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
38%

Tranmere at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Tranmere
Balanced
48%Possession50%
65%Pass accuracy67%
10.6ShotsBiggest gap12.0
1.10xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamTranmere

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Cheltenham
0
Draws
3
Tranmere
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 33%
1–32–30–21–04–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Tranmere

January 30, 2027: Cheltenham take on Tranmere in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Tranmere at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.