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Cheltenham vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
1/16/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Whaddon Road
Big match
47%
Oldham
model favours
27%26%47%

Cheltenham win just 15% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham27%
×Draw26%
Oldham47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.04
Oldham
1.47

Oldham creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.20
Oldham
1.37

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.56
Oldham
0.89

finishing

Cheltenham+0.40scores more
Oldham+0.43scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
53%
Cheltenham or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
73%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
10%
Oldham wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
65%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
28%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%
Oldham 1+ goals
77%
Oldham 2+ goals
43%
Oldham 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
36%
Oldham (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.20 + Oldham defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Oldham attack 1.37 + Cheltenham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cheltenham scores more
27%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
47%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Oldham
Balanced
49%Possession47%
67%Pass accuracyBiggest gap63%
11.4Shots11.5
1.25xG1.25
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Cheltenham
0
Draws
3
Oldham
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 40%
1–20–32–01–23–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
LLLW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Oldham

January 16, 2027: Cheltenham take on Oldham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Oldham at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.