Cheltenham 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

K. Joseph 14'

H. Boateng 87'

9/4/2021

League One · Round 6Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham37%

×Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Cheltenham

1.29

Milton Keynes Dons

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 95 away

1.19

creates per match

1.27

1.32

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

63%

Cheltenham or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

37%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

37%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

50%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more

37%

level

27%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

37%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Harvie

Milton Keynes Dons · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

K. Joseph↳ S. Long

39'

Matty Blair

45'

Chris Hussey

56'

T. Perry← A. May

57'

H. Boateng← J. McEachran

57'

J. Martin← C. Brown

61'

Harry Darling

69'

C. Thomas← E. Chapman

77'

A. Williams← K. Joseph

81'

84'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamMilton

Overview

27%Possession73%

10Total Shots14

1Corners4

17Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target3

5Off Target4

1Blocked7

7Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

27%Possession73%

258Total Passes716

179Accurate Passes629

69%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2