Cheltenham 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

J. Marriott 79'

Junior Quitirna 19'

10/3/2023

League One · Round 11Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham38%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.24

Cheltenham

1.31

Fleetwood Town

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 135 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.32

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Fleetwood Town

1.16

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

65%

Cheltenham or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

62%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

17%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

73%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

38%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

35%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

52%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more

38%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

35%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Junior Quitirna

Fleetwood Town · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

Promise Omochere

19'

Junior Quitirna

39'

Mohammed Olabosun Lawal

55'

56'

59'

65'

66'

O. Hammond← C. Thompson

70'

Curtis Davies

72'

Ryan Broom

73'

A. Keena← R. Street

73'

W. Goodwin← J. Malcolm

73'

B. Williams← W. Ferry

76'

J. Stockley← P. Omochere

79'

J. Marriott

82'

H. Holgate← B. Heneghan

86'

X. Simons← J. Marriott

90+9'

Jayden Stockley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamFleetwood

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots20

0Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots20

2On Target5

2Off Target10

3Blocked5

4Inside Box14

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

363Total Passes458

223Accurate Passes336

61%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Cheltenham 2-0 in League One on October 3, 2023.

Goals: Junior Quitirna (19'), J. Marriott (79').

Fleetwood Town controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.

Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town