Cheltenham 2–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fleetwood Town

C. Raglan 45'

A. May 41'

2/12/2022

League One · Round 33Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham38%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.24

Cheltenham

1.31

Fleetwood Town

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 135 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.32

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Fleetwood Town

1.16

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

65%

Cheltenham or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

62%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

17%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

73%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

38%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

35%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

52%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more

38%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

35%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. May

Cheltenham · F

7.9

Match Events

41'

A. May↳ E. Bonds

45'

C. Raglan↳ M. Pollock

48'

Aristote Nsiala

56'

H. Macadam← H. Biggins

57'

Ben Williams

66'

C. Hayes← A. Pilkington

70'

D. Boyle← D. Batty

87'

Cian Hayes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamFleetwood

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots7

10Corners0

7Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target1

5Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

491Total Passes371

368Accurate Passes235

75%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0