Cheltenham 2–2 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Barrow

I. Hutchinson 90'

J. Davison 15'

J. Gordon 59'

I. Fletcher 39'

3/6/2026

League Two · Round 36Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cheltenham44%

×Draw25%

Barrow31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.24

Cheltenham

1.52

Barrow

1.24

Cheltenham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.61

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Barrow

1.91

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

69%

Cheltenham or Barrow

75%

Draw or Barrow

56%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

22%

Barrow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

78%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

45%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

20%

Barrow 1+ goals

71%

Barrow 2+ goals

35%

Barrow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

58%

Barrow (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Barrow attack 0.87 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cheltenham scores more

44%

level

25%

Barrow scores more

31%

Cheltenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Hutchinson

Cheltenham · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

J. Davison↳ I. Hutchinson

24'

39'

59'

71'

74'

75'

S. Foley← A. MacDonald

77'

G. Miller← J. Bickerstaff

77'

C. Deeming← A. Jude-Boyd

77'

H. Ashfield← L. Young

82'

Danny Rose

82'

J. Thompson← T. Barkhuizen

83'

R. Broom← J. Tomkinson

85'

Isaac Fletcher

90+1'

S. Sherring← J. Davison

90'

I. Hutchinson↳ G. Miller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamBarrow

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots11

1.85Expected Goals (xG)2.66

1Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target8

5Off Target1

6Blocked2

6Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

383Total Passes345

293Accurate Passes247

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Barrow

Cheltenham and Barrow drew 2-2 in League Two on March 6, 2026.

Goals: J. Davison (15'), I. Fletcher (39'), J. Gordon (59'), I. Hutchinson (90').

Cheltenham controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Whaddon Road in Cheltenham.

Cheltenham vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Barrow