Cheltenham 3–2 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Barrow

A. Hay 76'

M. Taylor 70', 60'

B. Whitfield 46'

S. Foley 32'

2/15/2025

League Two · Round 32EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cheltenham45%

×Draw25%

Barrow29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.17

Cheltenham

1.52

Barrow

1.17

Cheltenham creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.47

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.47

Barrow

1.91

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.14scores more

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

71%

Cheltenham or Barrow

75%

Draw or Barrow

55%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

23%

Barrow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

78%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

45%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

20%

Barrow 1+ goals

69%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

61%

Barrow (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Barrow attack 0.87 + Cheltenham defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cheltenham scores more

45%

level

25%

Barrow scores more

29%

Cheltenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Taylor

Cheltenham · F

8.0

Match Events

32'

S. Foley↳ B. Jackson

41'

Scot Bennett

46'

B. Whitfield↳ M. Williams

51'

M. Taylor← S. Bennett

51'

A. Hay← G. Miller

60'

M. Taylor

62'

Paul Farman

67'

E. Acquah← A. Pressley

70'

M. Taylor↳ J. Day

73'

T. Smith← B. Whitfield

76'

A. Hay↳ E. Williams

78'

T. Vassell← S. Foley

78'

C. Mahoney← K. Spence

78'

L. Duru← E. Newby

84'

I. Bakare← E. Williams

89'

D. Power← J. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamBarrow

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots6

7Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots6

6On Target2

4Off Target2

4Blocked2

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

421Total Passes260

317Accurate Passes159

75%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4