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Barrow vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
A. Dallas 86'
E. Acquah 48'
R. Bowman 41'
10/5/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 10SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow33%
×Draw28%
Cheltenham39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.08
Cheltenham
1.21

Cheltenham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Cheltenham
1.05

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Cheltenham
1.36

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
61%
Barrow or Cheltenham
72%
Draw or Cheltenham
67%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
13%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
66%
Barrow 2+ goals
29%
Barrow 3+ goals
10%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
46%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barrow scores more
33%
level
28%
Cheltenham scores more
39%

Cheltenham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
R. BowmanCheltenhamCheltenham · F
7.5

Match Events

41'
R. Bowman
48'
E. Acquah↳ E. Newby
59'
K. Kouyate← C. Popov
63'
F. Willcox← M. Norkett
66'
Freddie Willcox
69'
D. Telford← S. Foley
69'
A. Dallas← E. Acquah
73'
Katia Kouyate
77'
N. Eccleston← R. Feely
83'
L. Dulson← J. Colwill
86'
A. Dallas↳ B. Jackson
88'
G. Miller← T. Pett
90+5'
Wyll Stanway

Possession

64%Barrow

Shots

10Barrow

Pass accuracy

58%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowCheltenham
Overview
64%Possession36%
10Total Shots7
0Corners1
13Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots7
4On Target5
3Off Target2
3Blocked0
9Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
475Total Passes271
338Accurate Passes138
71%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Barrow vs Cheltenham

Barrow beat Cheltenham 2-1 in League Two on October 5, 2024.

Goals: R. Bowman (41'), E. Acquah (48'), A. Dallas (86').

Barrow controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.