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Chelsea vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Southampton
Southampton
K. Havertz 59'
T. Werner 28', 15'
J. Vestergaard 90+2'
C. Adams 57'
D. Ings 43'
10/17/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Chelsea56%
×Draw22%
Southampton22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.90
Southampton
1.09

Chelsea creates 74% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.87
Southampton
0.90

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Southampton
1.92

finishing

Chelsea-0.41scores less
Southampton-0.27scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
78%
Chelsea or Southampton
78%
Draw or Southampton
44%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
33%
Southampton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea 2+ goals
56%
Chelsea 3+ goals
29%
Southampton 1+ goals
66%
Southampton 2+ goals
30%
Southampton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
72%
Southampton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.28 · 37 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.87 + Southampton defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Southampton attack 0.90 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chelsea scores more
56%
level
22%
Southampton scores more
22%

Chelsea at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. WernerChelseaChelsea · F
8.9

Match Events

15'
T. Werner↳ B. Chilwell
28'
T. Werner
43'
D. Ings↳ C. Adams
48'
Ben Chilwell
57'
C. Adams
59'
K. Havertz↳ T. Werner
72'
H. Ziyech← M. Mount
77'
N. Tella← N. Redmond
84'
Oriol Romeu
86'
S. Long← C. Adams
87'
R. James← C. Pulisic
87'
I. Diallo← Oriol Romeu
90'
T. Abraham← T. Werner
90+2'
J. Vestergaard↳ T. Walcott

Possession

53%Chelsea

Shots

11Chelsea

Pass accuracy

52%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaSouthampton
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots13
6Corners2
11Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots13
5On Target6
3Off Target5
3Blocked2
11Inside Box9
0Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
574Total Passes503
468Accurate Passes381
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 3–3 Southampton

Chelsea and Southampton drew 3-3 in Premier League on October 17, 2020.

Goals: T. Werner (15', 28'), D. Ings (43'), C. Adams (57'), K. Havertz (59'), J. Vestergaard (90+2').

Chelsea controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.