Chelsea 1–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Southampton

Marcos Alonso 45+3'

12/16/2017

Premier League · Round 18Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chelsea56%

×Draw22%

Southampton22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.11

Chelsea

1.93

Southampton

1.11

Chelsea creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 9 away

1.86

creates per match

0.95

1.28

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Southampton

1.99

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

78%

Chelsea or Southampton

78%

Draw or Southampton

44%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

33%

Southampton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

85%

Chelsea 2+ goals

57%

Chelsea 3+ goals

30%

Southampton 1+ goals

67%

Southampton 2+ goals

30%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

72%

Southampton (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.93

Southampton attack 0.95 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chelsea scores more

56%

level

22%

Southampton scores more

22%

Chelsea at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Marcos Alonso

Chelsea · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

M. Lemina← Cédric Soares

45'

Maya Yoshida

45+3'

Marcos Alonso

61'

C. Austin← M. Gabbiadini

68'

Fàbregas← Pedro

72'

S. Boufal← P. Højbjerg

73'

Álvaro Morata← E. Hazard

82'

D. Zappacosta← V. Moses

87'

Jack Stephens

87'

Nathan Redmond

90'

Marcos Alonso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaSouthampton

Overview

53%Possession47%

24Total Shots6

8Corners4

8Fouls16

Shots

24Total Shots6

8On Target2

8Off Target2

8Blocked2

11Inside Box4

13Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

545Total Passes474

467Accurate Passes386

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2