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Chelsea vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Southampton
Southampton
Willian 10'
G. Pellè 72'
S. Mané 60'
S. Davis 43'
10/3/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Chelsea53%
×Draw24%
Southampton23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.71
Southampton
1.03

Chelsea creates 66% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 168 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.78
Southampton
1.08

allows per match

Chelsea
0.98
Southampton
1.65

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
77%
Chelsea or Southampton
76%
Draw or Southampton
47%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
29%
Southampton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
82%
Chelsea 2+ goals
51%
Chelsea 3+ goals
24%
Southampton 1+ goals
64%
Southampton 2+ goals
28%
Southampton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
70%
Southampton (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 201 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Southampton attack 1.08 + Chelsea defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chelsea scores more
53%
level
24%
Southampton scores more
23%

Chelsea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. ManéSouthamptonSouthampton · M
8.5

Match Events

9'
Oriol Romeu
10'
Willian
26'
Ryan Bertrand
34'
Sadio Mané
43'
Ramires
43'
S. Davis↳ G. Pellè
46'
N. Matić← Ramires
46'
J. Ward-Prowse← Oriol Romeu
57'
Radamel Falcao
60'
S. Mané↳ G. Pellè
64'
Pedro← Willian
72'
G. Pellè↳ S. Mané
73'
L. Rémy← N. Matić
77'
James Ward-Prowse
78'
J. Rodriguez← D. Tadić
86'
Graziano Pellè
90+2'
M. Yoshida← S. Mané

Possession

60%Chelsea

Shots

10Chelsea

Pass accuracy

52%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaSouthampton
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots13
4Corners6
0Fouls0
Shots
10Total Shots13
3On Target5
4Off Target4
3Blocked4
4Inside Box8
6Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
551Total Passes360
435Accurate Passes259
79%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Southampton

Southampton beat Chelsea 3-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2015.

Goals: Willian (10'), S. Davis (43'), S. Mané (60'), G. Pellè (72').

Chelsea controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.