Chaves 1–3 Casa Pia: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Chaves

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Casa Pia

12/17/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 14Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chaves40%

×Draw26%

Casa Pia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchCasa Pia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.29

Chaves

1.41

Casa Pia

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

1.21

creates per match

1.03

1.56

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Chaves

1.21

Casa Pia

1.03

allows per match

Chaves

1.56

Casa Pia

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Casa Pia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

66%

Chaves or Casa Pia

74%

Draw or Casa Pia

60%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

19%

Casa Pia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

76%

Chaves 2+ goals

41%

Chaves 3+ goals

17%

Casa Pia 1+ goals

72%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

37%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

54%

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Casa Pia attack 1.03 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chaves scores more

40%

level

26%

Casa Pia scores more

34%

Chaves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff