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Casa Pia vs Chaves — Taça de Portugal 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
11/23/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Casa Pia48%
×Draw24%
Chaves28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.65
Chaves
1.19

Casa Pia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
2.20
Chaves
1.18

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.20
Chaves
1.09

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
72%
Casa Pia or Chaves
76%
Draw or Chaves
52%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
25%
Chaves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
81%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
49%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
23%
Chaves 1+ goals
70%
Chaves 2+ goals
33%
Chaves 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
64%
Chaves (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 2.20 + Chaves defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chaves attack 1.18 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Casa Pia scores more
48%
level
24%
Chaves scores more
28%

Casa Pia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs Chaves

Casa Pia beat Chaves 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.