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Casa Pia vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
11/13/2022Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 13Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Casa Pia46%
×Draw28%
Chaves26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.36
Chaves
0.95

Casa Pia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
1.01
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.16
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
74%
Casa Pia or Chaves
72%
Draw or Chaves
54%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
22%
Chaves wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
74%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
39%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
16%
Chaves 1+ goals
61%
Chaves 2+ goals
25%
Chaves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
64%
Chaves (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 1.01 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chaves attack 0.75 + Casa Pia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Casa Pia scores more
46%
level
28%
Chaves scores more
26%

Casa Pia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs Chaves

Chaves beat Casa Pia 2-1 in Primeira Liga on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.