Chateauroux 2–2 Caen: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Caen

R. Grange 13' (pen)

G. Tormin 9'

B. Jeannot 28', 4'

3/20/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux36%

×Draw26%

Caen38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchCaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.35

Chateauroux

1.29

Caen

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 107 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.57

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Caen

1.12

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Caen

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Caen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

62%

Chateauroux or Caen

74%

Draw or Caen

64%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

16%

Caen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

72%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

37%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

14%

Caen 1+ goals

74%

Caen 2+ goals

39%

Caen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

48%

Caen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Caen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Caen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Caen attack 1.12 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chateauroux scores more

36%

level

26%

Caen scores more

38%

Caen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Jeannot

Caen · F

8.5

Match Events

4'

B. Jeannot↳ J. Deminguet

9'

G. Tormin↳ R. Mulumba

13'

R. GrangePenalty

28'

33'

34'

38'

49'

53'

58'

66'

Alexandre Mendy← C. Zady Sery

67'

Remi Mulumba

74'

Opa Sanganté← G. Sunu

78'

K. Nsona← B. Jeannot

78'

A. Gonçalves← J. Rivierez

79'

Anthony Gonçalves

80'

R. Boukari← I. Chouaref

86'

Alexandre Mendy

90'

Johann Lepenant

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxCaen

Overview

76%Possession24%

18Total Shots3

10Corners0

16Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots3

7On Target3

7Off Target0

4Blocked0

13Inside Box2

5Outside Box1

Passing

76%Possession24%

764Total Passes230

706Accurate Passes161

92%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls20

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1