Chateauroux 2–1 Caen: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Caen

F. Diarra 90'

R. Grange 38'

M. Tchokounté 27'

3/6/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux36%

×Draw26%

Caen38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchCaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.35

Chateauroux

1.29

Caen

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 107 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.57

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Caen

1.12

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Caen

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Caen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

62%

Chateauroux or Caen

74%

Draw or Caen

64%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

16%

Caen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

72%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

37%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

14%

Caen 1+ goals

74%

Caen 2+ goals

39%

Caen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

48%

Caen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Caen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Caen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Caen attack 1.12 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chateauroux scores more

36%

level

26%

Caen scores more

38%

Caen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

R. Grange

Chateauroux · F

8.0

Match Events

27'

M. Tchokounté↳ A. Gonçalves

36'

Alexandre Raineau

38'

R. Grange↳ A. Raineau

65'

I. Chouaref← A. Goncalves

67'

J. Tell← N. Gioacchini

75'

F. Diarra← L. Leroy

83'

H. Hassan← A. Raineau

83'

H. Moussaki← C. Zady Sery

85'

Haissem Hassan

86'

Herman Moussaki

90'

F. Diarra↳ H. Hassan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxCaen

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots11

3Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target6

6Off Target5

3Blocked0

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

413Total Passes439

322Accurate Passes347

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1