Caen 1–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Caen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

Y. Bammou 74' (pen)

A. Nouri 66'

11/28/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Caen48%

×Draw29%

Chateauroux24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaenExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.83

Caen

1.30

Chateauroux

0.83

Caen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 50 away

1.26

creates per match

0.68

0.98

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Caen

1.26

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Caen

0.98

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caen+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Caen or draw

76%

Caen or Chateauroux

71%

Draw or Chateauroux

52%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+

22%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals

73%

Caen 2+ goals

37%

Caen 3+ goals

14%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

56%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

20%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)

67%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 107 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.26 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Caen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caen scores more

48%

level

29%

Chateauroux scores more

24%

Caen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Bammou

Caen · M

7.6

Match Events

62'

Y. Merdji← Opa Sanganté

62'

A. Nouri← R. Grange

63'

J. Deminguet← A. Gonçalves

64'

N. Gioacchini← C. Zady Sery

64'

A. Traore← Alexandre Mendy

66'

70'

72'

74'

74'

Y. BammouPenalty

75'

Jonathan Rivierez

83'

B. Jeannot← Y. Bammou

83'

A. Gonçalves← G. Sunu

83'

G. Tormin← I. Chouaref

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CaenChateauroux

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots7

5Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target3

3Off Target3

3Blocked1

5Inside Box2

7Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

535Total Passes357

440Accurate Passes243

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1