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Charlton vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
C. Aneke 86'
J. Stockley 64'
4/23/2022League OneLeague One · Round 45The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton50%
×Draw26%
Shrewsbury25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.52
Shrewsbury
0.99

Charlton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 152 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
75%
Charlton or Shrewsbury
74%
Draw or Shrewsbury
50%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
25%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
78%
Charlton 2+ goals
45%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
63%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
26%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
67%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Charlton scores more
50%
level
26%
Shrewsbury scores more
25%

Charlton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. MorganCharltonCharlton · M
9.5

Match Events

64'
J. Stockley↳ A. Morgan
75'
C. Aneke← A. Gilbey
86'
C. Aneke↳ A. Morgan
90+7'
D. Kanu← C. Washington
90+4'
T. Bloxham← D. Udoh

Possession

53%Charlton

Shots

16Charlton

Pass accuracy

53%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonShrewsbury
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots12
7Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots12
8On Target6
3Off Target4
5Blocked2
10Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
337Total Passes309
242Accurate Passes197
72%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls14
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Charlton vs Shrewsbury

Charlton beat Shrewsbury 2-0 in League One on April 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Stockley (64'), C. Aneke (86').

Charlton controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Valley in London.