Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Charlton vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
C. Washington 78'
S. Goss 56'
3/13/2021League OneLeague One · Round 36The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton50%
×Draw26%
Shrewsbury25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.52
Shrewsbury
0.99

Charlton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 152 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
75%
Charlton or Shrewsbury
74%
Draw or Shrewsbury
50%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
25%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
78%
Charlton 2+ goals
45%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
63%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
26%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
67%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Charlton scores more
50%
level
26%
Shrewsbury scores more
25%

Charlton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. FamewoCharltonCharlton · D
7.3

Match Events

25'
Darren Pratley
50'
Ian Maatsen
56'
S. Goss↳ M. Pennington
63'
M. Smith← D. Pratley
64'
C. Aneke← J. Stockley
64'
A. Shinnie← L. Millar
69'
Brad Walker
70'
D. Edwards← H. Chapman
78'
C. Washington↳ I. Maatsen
79'
D. Udoh← C. Main
79'
D. Davis← S. Goss
80'
D. Jaiyesimi← A. Morgan
88'
Ro-Shaun Williams
90'
S. Whalley← B. Walker

Possession

61%Charlton

Shots

15Charlton

Pass accuracy

53%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonShrewsbury
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots11
7Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots11
2On Target4
7Off Target7
6Blocked0
10Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
507Total Passes332
395Accurate Passes234
78%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Charlton vs Shrewsbury

Charlton and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in League One on March 13, 2021.

Goals: S. Goss (56'), C. Washington (78').

Charlton controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Valley in London.