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Charlton vs Preston — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
14:00
Preston
Preston
8/29/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3The Valley
Big match
42%
Charlton
model favours
42%27%31%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Charlton42%
×Draw27%
Preston31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.33
Preston
1.11

Charlton creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 50 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.05
Preston
0.96

allows per match

Charlton
1.26
Preston
1.60

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
58%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
19%
Preston wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
74%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%
Preston 1+ goals
67%
Preston 2+ goals
30%
Preston 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
57%
Preston (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Preston away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.05 + Preston defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Preston attack 0.96 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charlton scores more
42%
level
27%
Preston scores more
31%

Charlton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Preston have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston win just 21% of their away games
  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Balanced
Preston
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession45%
72%Pass accuracy71%
11.9Shots10.0
1.33xGBiggest gap1.01
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonPreston

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Charlton
0
Draws
5
Preston
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–20–21–21–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Preston
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs Preston — Match Preview

Charlton face Preston on August 29, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host Preston at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.