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Charlton vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
14:00
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
9/12/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7The Valley
Big match
43%
Charlton
model favours
43%27%30%
1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Charlton43%
×Draw27%
Portsmouth30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.37
Portsmouth
1.10

Charlton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.19
Portsmouth
0.85

allows per match

Charlton
1.35
Portsmouth
1.55

finishing

Charlton-0.19scores less
Portsmouth+0.25scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
70%
Charlton or Portsmouth
73%
Draw or Portsmouth
57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
20%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
75%
Charlton 2+ goals
40%
Charlton 3+ goals
16%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
67%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
30%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
59%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 11 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.55 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.19 + Portsmouth defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Portsmouth attack 0.85 + Charlton defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more
43%
level
27%
Portsmouth scores more
30%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
Portsmouth
Balanced
45%Possession48%
70%Pass accuracy73%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap12.1
1.09xG1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Charlton
2
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
1–31–22–00–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charlton host Portsmouth

September 12, 2026: Charlton take on Portsmouth in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Charlton host Portsmouth at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.