Jiangsu Suning 2–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Jiangsu Suning

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Beijing Guoan

R. Martínez 76', 45+3'

B. Yılmaz 10'

8/21/2016

Super League · Round 23Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Jiangsu Suning47%

×Draw25%

Beijing Guoan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangsu SuningExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.21

Jiangsu Suning

1.61

Beijing Guoan

1.21

Jiangsu Suning creates 33% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 122 away

1.79

creates per match

1.59

0.82

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning

1.79

Beijing Guoan

1.59

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning

0.82

Beijing Guoan

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw

71%

Jiangsu Suning or Beijing Guoan

75%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

53%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

24%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

80%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

48%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

22%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

70%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

34%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

62%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.79 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more

47%

level

25%

Beijing Guoan scores more

29%

Jiangsu Suning at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alex Teixeira

Jiangsu Suning · F

8.4

Match Events

10'

B. Yılmaz

34'

Hejing Zhao

39'

Liu Jianye← Wu Xi

45+3'

R. Martínez↳ Ji Xiang

66'

Li Zhichao← Xie Pengfei

73'

Piao Cheng← Zhang Xiaobin

76'

R. Martínez

79'

Zhang Chiming← Li Lei

80'

T. Sainsbury← Ramires

87'

Chao Gu

90'

Xinxin Zhang

90'

Cheng Piao

90+2'

Lang Zheng← Piao Cheng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JiangsuBeijing

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots4

8Corners1

16Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots4

10On Target2

6Off Target1

0Blocked1

10Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

423Total Passes348

352Accurate Passes273

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

16Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides5