Jiangsu Suning 1–0 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Jiangsu Suning

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beijing Guoan

7/21/2019

Super League · Round 19Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jiangsu Suning47%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangsu SuningExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.24

Jiangsu Suning

1.66

Beijing Guoan

1.24

Jiangsu Suning creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 121 away

1.90

creates per match

1.59

0.88

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning

1.90

Beijing Guoan

1.59

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning

0.88

Beijing Guoan

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw

71%

Jiangsu Suning or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

53%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

25%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

81%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

49%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

23%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

71%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

35%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

62%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.66

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more

47%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

29%

Jiangsu Suning at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff