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Beijing Guoan vs Jiangsu Suning — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
8/10/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Beijing Guoan49%
×Draw23%
Jiangsu Suning28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.85
Jiangsu Suning
1.35

Beijing Guoan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 39 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Jiangsu Suning
1.54

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Jiangsu Suning
1.46

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Jiangsu Suning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
72%
Beijing Guoan or Jiangsu Suning
77%
Draw or Jiangsu Suning
51%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
27%
Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
84%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
55%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
28%
Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
74%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
39%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
64%
Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
49%
level
23%
Jiangsu Suning scores more
28%

Beijing Guoan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Guoan 3–1 Jiangsu Suning

Beijing Guoan beat Jiangsu Suning 3-1 in Super League on August 10, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.