CFR 1907 Cluj 1–1 Dinamo Bucuresti: Result & Stats

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Bucuresti

4/12/2026

Liga I · Championship Group - 4Dr. Constantin Radulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj42%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bucuresti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.08

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.30

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.08

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.22

creates per match

1.03

1.12

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.22

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.03

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.12

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.39

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.22scores less

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.03on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

69%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Dinamo Bucuresti

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

58%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

73%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

37%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

57%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.22 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.03 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

42%

level

28%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

31%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff