CFR 1907 Cluj 0–2 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arges Pitesti

L. Sadriu 53'

R. Sierra 42'

7/27/2025

Liga I · Round 3Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj45%

×Draw27%

Arges Pitesti28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.01

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.35

Arges Pitesti

1.01

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

1.52

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.52

Arges Pitesti

0.96

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.06

Arges Pitesti

1.18

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.13scores more

Arges Pitesti+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

72%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Arges Pitesti

73%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

55%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

21%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

74%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

39%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

15%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

64%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

27%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

61%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.18 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.52 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arges Pitesti attack 0.96 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

45%

level

27%

Arges Pitesti scores more

28%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Sadriu

Arges Pitesti · D

7.9

Match Events

42'

R. Sierra↳ Caio Ferreira

45'

Ionut Radescu

46'

M. Korenica← C. Deac

46'

B. Nkololo← M. Samake

53'

L. Sadriu↳ Caio Ferreira

63'

M. Badamosi← A. Paun

63'

L. Munteanu← M. Gjorgjievski

67'

F. Borta← Caio Ferreira

67'

Y. Pirvu← R. Moldoveanu

71'

Viktor Kun

74'

V. Postolachi← A. Sfait

77'

Ricardo Matos

77'

A. Bettaieb← R. Matos

78'

Louis Munteanu

85'

Cătălin Straton

89'

T. Seto← I. Radescu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFRArges

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots11

0.51Expected Goals (xG)1.27

8Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots11

1On Target4

6Off Target7

5Blocked0

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

447Total Passes263

336Accurate Passes162

75%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1