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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
E. Krasniqi 90+4'
R. Janga 25'
C. Deac 2'
D. Kolinger 61' (OG)
2/19/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 26Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj46%
×Draw27%
Arges Pitesti27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.39
Arges Pitesti
0.99

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 40% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.56
Arges Pitesti
0.94

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.05
Arges Pitesti
1.22

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.16scores more
Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
73%
CFR 1907 Cluj or Arges Pitesti
73%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
54%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
22%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
75%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
40%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
16%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
63%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
26%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
63%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.05 · 25 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.56 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
46%
level
27%
Arges Pitesti scores more
27%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
C. Deac↳ C. Malele
25'
R. Janga↳ Camora
34'
Costinel Tofan
46'
K. Koubemba← Boubacar Hanne
46'
A. Jakoliš← A. Tofan
50'
Yuri Matias
61'
D. KolingerOwn goal
66'
Claudiu Adrian Petrila
73'
L. Cvek← C. Malele
76'
D. Bîrligea← C. Petrila
76'
E. Krasniqi← C. Deac
82'
A. Calcan← W. Jobello
83'
D. Bertrand← A. Tîrcoveanu
84'
C. Manea← C. Braun
84'
A. Maglica← R. Janga
88'
D. Croitoru← Z. Bassong
90+4'
E. Krasniqi↳ L. Cvek

Shots

16CFR

Statistics

CFRArges
Overview
16Total Shots7
6Corners3
15Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots7
6On Target1
8Off Target2
2Blocked4
Discipline
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 3–1 Arges Pitesti

CFR 1907 Cluj beat Arges Pitesti 3-1 in Liga I on February 19, 2023.

Goals: C. Deac (2'), R. Janga (25'), D. Kolinger (61' o.g.), E. Krasniqi (90+4').

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.