Arges Pitesti 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

A. Paun 90'

4/17/2026

Liga I · Championship Group - 5Stadionul Orasenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Arges Pitesti39%

×Draw28%

CFR 1907 Cluj33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.09

Arges Pitesti

1.21

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.09

Arges Pitesti creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

1.06

creates per match

1.24

0.94

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.24

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.94

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.36

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.30scores less

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.01on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

67%

Arges Pitesti or CFR 1907 Cluj

72%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

61%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

17%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

70%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

34%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

66%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

30%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

54%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.06 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.24 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

39%

level

28%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

33%

Arges Pitesti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Sinyan

CFR 1907 Cluj · D

7.6

Match Events

-5'

27'

45+1'

46'

46'

57'

57'

A. Bettaieb← R. Moldoveanu

63'

70'

74'

77'

81'

86'

89'

C. Deac← T. Keita

90'

Ciprian Deac

90'

A. Paun↳ L. Biliboc

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesCFR

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots11

0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.90

4Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target4

3Off Target5

4Blocked2

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

373Total Passes404

255Accurate Passes296

68%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj beat Arges Pitesti 1-0 in Liga I on April 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Paun (90').

CFR 1907 Cluj controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadionul Orasenesc in Mioveni.

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj