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CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Preview
23:00
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
10/31/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Big match
43%
CF Pachuca
model favours
43%26%31%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CF Pachuca43%
×Draw26%
Tigres UANL31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.40
Tigres UANL
1.15

CF Pachuca creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 21 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.56
Tigres UANL
1.24

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.06
Tigres UANL
1.24

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
69%
CF Pachuca or Tigres UANL
74%
Draw or Tigres UANL
57%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
20%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
75%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
41%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
17%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
68%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
32%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
58%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.56 + Tigres UANL defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tigres UANL attack 1.24 + CF Pachuca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
43%
level
26%
Tigres UANL scores more
31%

CF Pachuca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CF Pachuca outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pachuca
WLWWW
UANL
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CF Pachuca face Tigres UANL (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with CF Pachuca hosting Tigres UANL. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CF Pachuca host Tigres UANL at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.