CF Pachuca 2–0 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tigres UANL

8/7/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CF Pachuca38%

×Draw31%

Tigres UANL32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.95

CF Pachuca

1.06

Tigres UANL

0.95

CF Pachuca creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.13

creates per match

1.07

0.83

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.13

Tigres UANL

1.07

allows per match

CF Pachuca

0.83

Tigres UANL

0.99

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.49scores more

Tigres UANL+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

68%

CF Pachuca or Tigres UANL

69%

Draw or Tigres UANL

62%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

15%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

65%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

29%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

9%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

61%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

25%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

54%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 13 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.13 + Tigres UANL defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Tigres UANL attack 1.07 + CF Pachuca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

38%

level

31%

Tigres UANL scores more

32%

CF Pachuca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff