CF Pachuca 4–4 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

CF Pachuca

1.77

Santos Laguna

1.06

CF Pachuca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 142 away

1.67

creates per match

1.09

1.04

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.67

Santos Laguna

1.09

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.04

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

77%

CF Pachuca or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

46%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

30%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

83%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

53%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

26%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

65%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

29%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

70%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

54%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

23%

CF Pachuca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Hurtado

CF Pachuca · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Juan Brunetta

7'

C. ArangoPenalty

11'

H. Preciado↳ D. Medina

14'

R. de La Rosa↳ R. Ibarra

26'

F. Torres↳ J. Brunetta

35'

Aldo Lopez

43'

R. Ibarra↳ A. Hurtado

45+1'

50'

52'

57'

67'

Ó. Murillo← B. González

67'

I. Hernández← R. de La Rosa

67'

J. López← C. Arango

74'

J. Correa← H. Preciado

74'

J. Lozano← E. Rodríguez

74'

Paulino← R. Ibarra

78'

L. González← A. López

82'

T. Figueroa← A. Hurtado

83'

J. González← D. Medina

87'

90+6'

90+2'

90+5'

120+1'

G. CabralMissed penalty

120+2'

J. BrunettaPenalty

120+3'

L. ChávezPenalty

120+4'

J. CorreaPenalty

120+5'

J. LópezPenalty

120+6'

DóriaPenalty

120+7'

PaulinoMissed penalty

120+8'

J. LozanoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFSantos

Overview

56%Possession44%

28Total Shots8

7Corners2

10Fouls3

Shots

28Total Shots8

10On Target7

10Off Target0

8Blocked1

14Inside Box5

14Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

398Total Passes310

306Accurate Passes219

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls3

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides5