CF Pachuca 1–1 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santos Laguna

10/17/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

CF Pachuca54%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

CF Pachuca

1.77

Santos Laguna

1.06

CF Pachuca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 142 away

1.67

creates per match

1.09

1.04

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.67

Santos Laguna

1.09

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.04

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

77%

CF Pachuca or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

46%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

30%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

83%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

53%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

26%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

65%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

29%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

70%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

54%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

23%

CF Pachuca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff