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CF Pachuca vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Preview
03:00
Puebla
Puebla
8/18/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Big match
60%
CF Pachuca
model favours
60%21%19%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

CF Pachuca60%
×Draw21%
Puebla19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
2.00
Puebla
1.03

CF Pachuca creates 94% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.68
Puebla
0.96

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.10
Puebla
2.33

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
81%
CF Pachuca or Puebla
79%
Draw or Puebla
40%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
36%
Puebla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
86%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
59%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
32%
Puebla 1+ goals
64%
Puebla 2+ goals
28%
Puebla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
76%
Puebla (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Puebla away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.68 + Puebla defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Puebla attack 0.96 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
60%
level
21%
Puebla scores more
19%

CF Pachuca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CF Pachuca have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • CF Pachuca sit 4, Puebla 17 in the table
  • Puebla outscore their xG (1.4 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
Puebla
Defensively solid
51%Possession51%
83%Pass accuracy80%
15.9Shots13.1
1.17xGBiggest gap0.92
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CF PachucaPuebla

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
CF Pachuca
1
Draws
0
Puebla
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 100%
3–12–12–22–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pachuca
WLWWW
Puebla
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CF Pachuca host Puebla

August 18, 2026: CF Pachuca take on Puebla in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CF Pachuca host Puebla at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.