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CF Pachuca vs Puebla — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
8/25/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

CF Pachuca52%
×Draw24%
Puebla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.67
Puebla
1.04

CF Pachuca creates 61% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 141 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Puebla
1.67

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
76%
CF Pachuca or Puebla
76%
Draw or Puebla
48%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
28%
Puebla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
81%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
50%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
23%
Puebla 1+ goals
65%
Puebla 2+ goals
28%
Puebla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
69%
Puebla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Puebla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Puebla attack 1.05 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
52%
level
24%
Puebla scores more
24%

CF Pachuca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 2–0 Puebla

CF Pachuca beat Puebla 2-0 in Liga MX on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.