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Cesena vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Palermo
Palermo
L. Jallow 34'
A. Trajkovski 9'
12/21/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 20Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cesena42%
×Draw25%
Palermo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.50
Palermo
1.29

Cesena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.56
Palermo
1.45

allows per match

Cesena
1.13
Palermo
1.43

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less
Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
67%
Cesena or Palermo
75%
Draw or Palermo
58%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
21%
Palermo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
78%
Cesena 2+ goals
44%
Cesena 3+ goals
19%
Palermo 1+ goals
72%
Palermo 2+ goals
37%
Palermo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
56%
Palermo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.56 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Palermo attack 1.45 + Cesena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cesena scores more
42%
level
25%
Palermo scores more
33%

Cesena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Trajkovski↳ H. Aleesami
34'
L. Jallow↳ A. Esposito
37'
Gennaro Scognamiglio
48'
Giuseppe Bellusci
66'
N. Dalmonte← D. Cacia
75'
R. Murawski← Coronado
77'
G. Moncini← L. Jallow
85'
G. Sbrissa← N. Fazzi
85'
G. Monachello← A. La Gumina
85'
P. Dawidowicz← E. Gnahoré

Possession

32%Cesena

Shots

5Cesena

Statistics

CesenaPalermo
Overview
32%Possession68%
5Total Shots16
1Corners1
15Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots16
2On Target7
3Off Target9
Passing
32%Possession68%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Palermo

Cesena and Palermo drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 21, 2017.

Goals: A. Trajkovski (9'), L. Jallow (34').

Palermo controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.