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Cesena vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
A. Schiavone 14'
R. Coly 39'
4/4/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 34Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cesena39%
×Draw27%
Brescia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.33
Brescia
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 118 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.39
Brescia
1.19

allows per match

Cesena
1.26
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
66%
Cesena or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
61%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
18%
Brescia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
74%
Cesena 2+ goals
38%
Cesena 3+ goals
15%
Brescia 1+ goals
71%
Brescia 2+ goals
35%
Brescia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
53%
Brescia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.39 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brescia attack 1.19 + Cesena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cesena scores more
39%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
34%

Cesena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Schiavone↳ L. Garritano
24'
Nicola Falasco
26'
Leonardo Blanchard
39'
R. Coly↳ D. Bisoli
58'
J. Ferrante← G. Camara
59'
Andrea Cocco
67'
N. Di Roberto← A. Balzano
70'
G. Panico← C. Ciano
70'
N. Lancini← E. Torregrossa
72'
Giampiero Pinzi
76'
M. Vitale← K. Laribi
80'
Nicola Lancini
88'
A. Caracciolo← F. Bonazzoli
90'
Alessandro Ligi
90'
Racine Coly

Possession

52%Cesena

Shots

17Cesena

Statistics

CesenaBrescia
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots5
5Corners3
18Fouls22
Shots
17Total Shots5
9On Target4
8Off Target1
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
18Fouls22
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Cesena vs Brescia

Cesena and Brescia drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 4, 2017.

Goals: A. Schiavone (14'), R. Coly (39').

Cesena controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.