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Cesena vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
G. Scognamiglio 25'
11/27/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 16Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cesena39%
×Draw27%
Brescia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.33
Brescia
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 118 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.39
Brescia
1.19

allows per match

Cesena
1.26
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
66%
Cesena or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
61%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
18%
Brescia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
74%
Cesena 2+ goals
38%
Cesena 3+ goals
15%
Brescia 1+ goals
71%
Brescia 2+ goals
35%
Brescia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
53%
Brescia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.39 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brescia attack 1.19 + Cesena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cesena scores more
39%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
34%

Cesena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Lorenzo Di Santantonio
25'
G. Scognamiglio↳ K. Laribi
46'
Pepín← A. Ferrante
46'
E. Torregrossa← E. Di Santantonio
52'
M. Rigione← A. Esposito
76'
I. Donkor← G. Panico
81'
R. Rivas← T. Cancellotti
84'
D. Cacia← L. Jallow

Possession

37%Cesena

Shots

6Cesena

Statistics

CesenaBrescia
Overview
37%Possession63%
6Total Shots6
4Corners4
13Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots6
3On Target3
3Off Target3
Passing
37%Possession63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Serie B: Cesena 1–0 Brescia

Cesena beat Brescia 1-0 in Serie B on November 27, 2017.

Goals: G. Scognamiglio (25').

Brescia controlled possession (63%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.