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Brescia vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
A. Martinelli 84'
E. Torregrossa 20', 13'
C. Ciano 75', 66' (pen)
11/4/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 13Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Brescia46%
×Draw26%
Cesena28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.50
Cesena
1.10

Brescia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 47 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.47
Cesena
1.02

allows per match

Brescia
1.18
Cesena
1.53

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
72%
Brescia or Cesena
74%
Draw or Cesena
54%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
23%
Cesena wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
78%
Brescia 2+ goals
44%
Brescia 3+ goals
19%
Cesena 1+ goals
67%
Cesena 2+ goals
30%
Cesena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
63%
Cesena (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 117 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.47 + Cesena defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cesena attack 1.02 + Brescia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brescia scores more
46%
level
26%
Cesena scores more
28%

Brescia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Torregrossa↳ R. Coly
20'
E. Torregrossa↳ A. Caracciolo
37'
A. Rossi← R. Coly
45'
Alessandro Martinelli
56'
Emmanuel Cascione
63'
K. Laribi← A. Cinelli
63'
N. Dalmonte← L. Garritano
66'
C. CianoPenalty
73'
G. Sbrissa← A. Caracciolo
75'
S. Rosso← E. Ndoj
75'
C. Ciano↳ M. Đurić
81'
Milan Đurić
82'
Joel Untersee
82'
Alejandro Rodriguez← M. Đurić
84'
A. Martinelli↳ G. Sbrissa
90'
Alejandro Rodríguez

Possession

40%Brescia

Shots

8Brescia

Statistics

BresciaCesena
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots10
4Corners11
15Fouls19
Shots
8Total Shots10
5On Target7
3Off Target3
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls19
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Serie B: Brescia 3–2 Cesena

Brescia beat Cesena 3-2 in Serie B on November 4, 2016.

Goals: E. Torregrossa (13', 20'), C. Ciano (66' pen, 75'), A. Martinelli (84').

Cesena controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.