Cesena 1–0 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cesena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brescia

E. Giaccherini 60'

5/15/2011

Serie A · Round 37Stadio Dino Manuzzi (Cesena)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cesena54%

×Draw23%

Brescia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.06

Cesena

1.78

Brescia

1.06

Cesena creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

1.50

creates per match

0.63

1.50

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Cesena

1.50

Brescia

0.63

allows per match

Cesena

1.50

Brescia

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

77%

Cesena or Brescia

77%

Draw or Brescia

46%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

30%

Brescia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

83%

Cesena 2+ goals

53%

Cesena 3+ goals

26%

Brescia 1+ goals

65%

Brescia 2+ goals

29%

Brescia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

71%

Brescia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.50 + Brescia defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Brescia attack 0.63 + Cesena defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cesena scores more

54%

level

23%

Brescia scores more

23%

Cesena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

D. Santon← M. Lauro

60'

E. Giaccherini↳ I. Budan

61'

A. Filippini← Á. Vass

64'

Eder← Jonathas

69'

J. Zebina← G. Berardi

88'

D. Malonga← L. Jiménez

89'

G. Colucci← F. Caserta

Cesena

Brescia

12

6

2

15

28

▼

Berardi

3

Daprelà

8

▼

33

56

9

30

▼

1

5

3

6

▼

Lauro

24

Sammarco

8

▼

Caserta

10

▼

Jiménez

23

⚽

Giaccheri

18

Parolo

77

Ceccarell

11

A

Budan

48'▲D. Santon←▼M. Lauro

88'▲D. Malonga←▼L. Jiménez

89'▲G. Colucci←▼F. Caserta

Cesena substitutes

46Santon17Malonga14Colucci33Calderoni70BogdaniDellafiore84Rosina

61'▲A. Filippini←▼Á. Vass

64'▲Eder←▼Jonathas

69'▲J. Zebina←▼G. Berardi

Brescia substitutes

4Filippini7Eder5Zebina20Accardi1Arcari38WelbeckKamalu