Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–1 Banfield

Central Cordoba de Santiago

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Banfield

L. Heredia 45'

M. Rio 78'

11/16/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago45%

×Draw29%

Banfield26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Cordoba de SantiagoExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.88

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.25

Banfield

0.88

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.27

creates per match

0.85

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.27

Banfield

0.85

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.91

Banfield

1.24

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par

Banfield-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw

74%

Central Cordoba de Santiago or Banfield

71%

Draw or Banfield

55%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

20%

Banfield wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

71%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

36%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

13%

Banfield 1+ goals

59%

Banfield 2+ goals

22%

Banfield 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

63%

Banfield (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 17 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.24 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Banfield defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Banfield attack 0.85 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

45%

level

29%

Banfield scores more

26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Aguerre

Central Cordoba de Santiago · G

8.2

Match Events

23'

34'

34'

38'

45'

46'

S. Moyano← I. .. Pillud

46'

L. Rios← S. Esquivel

57'

T. Adoryan← N. Meriano

57'

R. Auzmendi← B. Sepulveda

67'

Sergio Vittor

68'

N. Funez← L. Varaldo

71'

Yuri Casermeiro

78'

M. Rio↳ G. Rios

83'

D. Barrera← I. Gomez

84'

F. Juarez← J. I. Florentin Bobadilla

84'

L. Besozzi← L. Abascia

85'

Tomas Adoryan

88'

L. Gomez← G. Rios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralBanfield

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots22

0.78Expected Goals (xG)2.84

6Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots22

4On Target6

5Off Target12

2Blocked4

9Inside Box16

2Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

385Total Passes320

294Accurate Passes232

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.57Goals Prevented0.57

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards5