Banfield 2–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Banfield

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

G. Galoppo 81' (pen)

A. Cabrera 3'

F. González 54'

6/15/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Banfield45%

×Draw28%

Central Cordoba de Santiago27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.98

Banfield

1.34

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.98

Banfield creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.31

creates per match

0.74

1.23

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Banfield

1.31

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.74

allows per match

Banfield

1.23

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.38

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Banfield-0.19scores less

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

73%

Banfield or Central Cordoba de Santiago

72%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

55%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

21%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

74%

Banfield 2+ goals

39%

Banfield 3+ goals

15%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

62%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

62%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 17 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.31 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Banfield defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Banfield scores more

45%

level

28%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

27%

Banfield at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Cabrera

Banfield · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

A. Cabrera↳ M. González

25'

Luciano Abecasis

46'

R. López← S. Ribas

46'

E. Kalinski← N. Linares

46'

G. Ríos← A. Martínez

52'

Nicolás Domingo

54'

F. González

59'

L. Montoya← N. Banegas

61'

Francisco Metilli

70'

J. Cruz← M. González

71'

M. Romero← R. Enrique

76'

I. Ramírez← J. Gómez

79'

Alejandro MacielPenalty awarded

80'

Matias Ezequiel Di Benedetto

81'

Enzo Kalinski

81'

G. GaloppoPenalty

86'

M. Cuadra← A. Urzi

87'

L. Ríos← G. Galoppo

90+3'

G. Tanco← N. Domingo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldCentral

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots16

3Corners4

16Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target6

4Off Target7

3Blocked3

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

381Total Passes357

264Accurate Passes249

69%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1