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Ceara vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avai
Avai
L. Mugni 71'
Erick Pulga 58'
11/3/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Ceara42%
×Draw28%
Avai30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.27
Avai
1.04

Ceara creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.17
Avai
1.05

allows per match

Ceara
1.03
Avai
1.37

finishing

Ceara+0.21scores more
Avai-0.10scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
70%
Ceara or Avai
72%
Draw or Avai
58%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
19%
Avai wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
72%
Ceara 2+ goals
36%
Ceara 3+ goals
14%
Avai 1+ goals
65%
Avai 2+ goals
28%
Avai 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
58%
Avai (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 13 matches

Avai away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.17 + Avai defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avai attack 1.05 + Ceara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ceara scores more
42%
level
28%
Avai scores more
30%

Ceara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. MugniCearaCeara · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
Giovanni
13'
Lourenço
27'
Rodrigo SantosGoal cancelled
43'
Andrey← Giovanni
46'
L. Mugni← J. Recalde
58'
Erick Pulga↳ L. Mugni
68'
Vágner Love← Gaspar
70'
Richardson
71'
L. Mugni↳ Saulo Mineiro
80'
Pedro Castro← Rodrigo Santos
80'
Judson← Zé Ricardo
80'
Natanael← Andrey
87'
De Lucca← Lourenço
89'
Lucas← Saulo Mineiro
90+3'
Raí Ramos← Rafael Ramos
90+3'
Andrey← Erick Pulga

Possession

48%Ceara

Shots

11Ceara

Pass accuracy

49%Ceara

Statistics

CearaAvai
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots5
7Corners2
11Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots5
5On Target1
3Off Target3
3Blocked1
7Inside Box4
4Outside Box1
Passing
48%Possession52%
382Total Passes424
297Accurate Passes347
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Ceara 2 – 0 Avai

Ceara beat Avai 2-0 in Serie B on November 3, 2024.

Goals: Erick Pulga (58'), L. Mugni (71').

Avai controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.