Ceara 0–0 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ceara

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avai

6/28/2023

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Ceara42%

×Draw28%

Avai30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.04

Ceara

1.27

Avai

1.04

Ceara creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

1.03

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ceara

1.17

Avai

1.05

allows per match

Ceara

1.03

Avai

1.37

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Ceara+0.21scores more

Avai-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

70%

Ceara or Avai

72%

Draw or Avai

58%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

19%

Avai wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

72%

Ceara 2+ goals

36%

Ceara 3+ goals

14%

Avai 1+ goals

65%

Avai 2+ goals

28%

Avai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

58%

Avai (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 13 matches

Avai away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.17 + Avai defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avai attack 1.05 + Ceara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ceara scores more

42%

level

28%

Avai scores more

30%

Ceara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

53

Alexander

Avai · G

8.0

Match Events

5'

Erick

39'

Natanael

46'

Wellington← Giva

46'

S. Patiño← Ricardo Bueno

55'

Guilherme Castilho← Richardson

55'

Jean Carlos← Chay

55'

Felipinho← Waguininho

61'

Pedrinho← Janderson

67'

Xavier← Jean Cléber

68'

Gustavo Santos← Igor Dutra

69'

Felipe Rocha

71'

David Ricardo← Nicolas

71'

Vitor Gabriel← Willian Formiga

74'

74'

80'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaAvai

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots12

11Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots12

3On Target1

10Off Target6

8Blocked5

6Inside Box8

15Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

444Total Passes248

365Accurate Passes168

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Serie B: Ceara 0–0 Avai

Ceara and Avai drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 28, 2023.

Ceara controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.

Ceara vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ceara 0–0 Avai