Avai 1–0 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ceara

Waguininho 47'

10/22/2023

Serie B · Round 33Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Avai46%

×Draw26%

Ceara28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.09

Avai

1.47

Ceara

1.09

Avai creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.31

creates per match

1.23

0.95

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Avai

1.31

Ceara

1.23

allows per match

Avai

0.95

Ceara

1.62

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Ceara-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Avai or draw

72%

Avai or Ceara

74%

Draw or Ceara

54%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

23%

Ceara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

77%

Avai 2+ goals

43%

Avai 3+ goals

18%

Ceara 1+ goals

66%

Ceara 2+ goals

30%

Ceara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

62%

Ceara (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.31 + Ceara defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ceara attack 1.23 + Avai defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avai scores more

46%

level

26%

Ceara scores more

28%

Avai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Douglas Friedrich

Avai · G

7.5

Match Events

3'

Richard

32'

Chay← Chrystian Barletta

43'

Thales

47'

Waguininho↳ Natanael

57'

Saulo Mineiro← Nicolas

57'

Janderson← Paulo Victor

67'

Jean Cléber← Jean Lucas

67'

Gaspar← Waguininho

68'

Giovanni

78'

Fellipe Bastos← Giovanni

81'

81'

81'

84'

84'

89'

90+2'

90+2'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiCeara

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots8

4Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target2

4Off Target5

3Blocked1

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

276Total Passes278

199Accurate Passes203

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Serie B: Avai 1–0 Ceara

Avai beat Ceara 1-0 in Serie B on October 22, 2023.

Goals: Waguininho (47').

Avai controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Ceara — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Avai 1–0 Ceara