Cardiff 1–2 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Watford

C. Kipré 9'

I. Sarr 59'

F. Sierralta 38'

11/2/2022

Championship · Round 19Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff37%

×Draw28%

Watford36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Cardiff

1.21

Watford

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 58 away

1.05

creates per match

1.01

1.37

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Cardiff

1.37

Watford

1.38

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

64%

Cardiff or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

63%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

70%

Cardiff 2+ goals

34%

Cardiff 3+ goals

12%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

33%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

51%

Watford (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Watford attack 1.01 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more

37%

level

28%

Watford scores more

36%

Cardiff at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Kipré

Cardiff · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

C. Kipré↳ J. Ralls

38'

F. Sierralta↳ K. Sema

40'

Niels Nkounkou

59'

I. Sarr

68'

K. Etete← M. Harris

68'

R. Sawyers← A. Rinomhota

68'

S. Ojo← C. ODowda

77'

77'

79'

82'

90+2'

90+1'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffWatford

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots16

8Corners11

9Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target5

4Off Target5

4Blocked6

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

373Total Passes344

277Accurate Passes262

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Championship: Cardiff 1–2 Watford

Watford beat Cardiff 2-1 in Championship on November 2, 2022.

Goals: C. Kipré (9'), F. Sierralta (38'), I. Sarr (59').

Cardiff controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Watford — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Cardiff 1–2 Watford