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Cardiff vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sunderland
Sunderland
J. Clarke 89'
L. O'Nien 18'
8/10/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff34%
×Draw28%
Sunderland38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.17
Sunderland
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 42 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.05
Sunderland
1.14

allows per match

Cardiff
1.37
Sunderland
1.29

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par
Sunderland+0.05on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
62%
Cardiff or Sunderland
72%
Draw or Sunderland
66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
14%
Sunderland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
69%
Cardiff 2+ goals
33%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
Sunderland 1+ goals
71%
Sunderland 2+ goals
36%
Sunderland 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
47%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Sunderland defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cardiff scores more
34%
level
28%
Sunderland scores more
38%

Sunderland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. BellinghamSunderlandSunderland · M
8.2

Match Events

18'
L. O'Nien↳ D. Cirkin
51'
Trai Hume
62'
Y. Meïté← O. Tanner
68'
W. Kanga← C. Robinson
72'
N. Rusyn← Eliezer Mayenda
77'
C. Rigg← P. Roberts
78'
D. Turnbull← J. Ralls
78'
R. Colwill← C. Willock
81'
Ajibola-Joshua Alese
89'
J. Clarke↳ J. Bellingham
90'
R. Mundle← J. Clarke

Possession

65%Cardiff

Shots

12Cardiff

Pass accuracy

52%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffSunderland
Overview
65%Possession35%
12Total Shots11
1.02Expected Goals (xG)1.80
4Corners4
10Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots11
4On Target4
4Off Target4
4Blocked3
9Inside Box10
3Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
575Total Passes313
508Accurate Passes250
88%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
1.26Goals Prevented1.26
Discipline
10Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 Sunderland

Sunderland beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on August 10, 2024.

Goals: L. O'Nien (18'), J. Clarke (89').

Cardiff controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.