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Cardiff vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sunderland
Sunderland
J. Bellingham 27'
A. Aouchiche 12' (pen)
3/29/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff34%
×Draw27%
Sunderland38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.18
Sunderland
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 41 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.05
Sunderland
1.15

allows per match

Cardiff
1.37
Sunderland
1.30

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par
Sunderland+0.02on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
62%
Cardiff or Sunderland
73%
Draw or Sunderland
66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
14%
Sunderland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
69%
Cardiff 2+ goals
33%
Cardiff 3+ goals
12%
Sunderland 1+ goals
72%
Sunderland 2+ goals
36%
Sunderland 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
47%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Sunderland defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sunderland attack 1.15 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cardiff scores more
34%
level
27%
Sunderland scores more
38%

Sunderland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. BellinghamSunderlandSunderland · F
9.2

Match Events

12'
A. AouchichePenalty
27'
J. Bellingham↳ A. Aouchiche
36'
Callum Styles
46'
F. Diédhiou← J. Wilson-Esbrand
46'
A. Ramsey← R. Colwill
64'
Josh Bowler
64'
Ryan Wintle
65'
C. Robinson← J. Ralls
71'
R. Mundle← C. Rigg
71'
L. Hjelde← C. Styles
77'
Y. Meïté← J. Bowler
81'
Luís Semedo← A. Aouchiche
89'
B. Dack← A. Ba

Possession

56%Cardiff

Shots

8Cardiff

Pass accuracy

50%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffSunderland
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots18
0.28Expected Goals (xG)3.07
5Corners6
12Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots18
3On Target8
3Off Target6
2Blocked4
6Inside Box11
2Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
526Total Passes424
445Accurate Passes362
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides5

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 Sunderland

Sunderland beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on March 29, 2024.

Goals: A. Aouchiche (12' pen), J. Bellingham (27').

Cardiff controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 18.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.