Cardiff 0–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

D. Cirkin 60'

4/10/2023

Championship · Round 41Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff34%

×Draw28%

Sunderland38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.25

Cardiff

1.17

Sunderland

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 42 away

1.05

creates per match

1.14

1.37

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Cardiff

1.37

Sunderland

1.29

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Sunderland+0.05on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

62%

Cardiff or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

14%

Sunderland wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

69%

Cardiff 2+ goals

33%

Cardiff 3+ goals

11%

Sunderland 1+ goals

71%

Sunderland 2+ goals

36%

Sunderland 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

47%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Sunderland defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cardiff scores more

34%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

38%

Sunderland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Cirkin

Sunderland · D

8.2

Match Events

36'

J. Simpson← S. Ojo

36'

A. Rinomhota← J. Philogene

46'

59'

60'

61'

72'

72'

P. Roberts← A. Ba

75'

Cédric Kipré

76'

Kion Etete

79'

I. Davies← M. Romeo

79'

J. Gelhardt← A. Pritchard

81'

Andy Rinomhota

84'

Daniel Neil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffSunderland

Overview

33%Possession67%

17Total Shots18

7Corners5

20Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots18

4On Target4

9Off Target5

4Blocked9

9Inside Box9

8Outside Box9

Passing

33%Possession67%

260Total Passes579

185Accurate Passes488

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3