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Cardiff vs QPR — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
QPR
QPR
11/3/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Cardiff39%
×Draw29%
QPR32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.15
QPR
1.01

Cardiff creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.12
QPR
0.77

allows per match

Cardiff
1.25
QPR
1.17

finishing

Cardiff+0.09on par
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
68%
Cardiff or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
61%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
16%
QPR wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
QPR 1+ goals
64%
QPR 2+ goals
27%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
55%
QPR (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 33 matches

QPR away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + QPR defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

QPR attack 0.77 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cardiff scores more
39%
level
29%
QPR scores more
32%

Cardiff at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cardiff vs QPR

QPR beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.